Some Interesting Graphics (A.K.A. America The Beautiful)

Make of this what you will,  but it always puzzles me why the American dollar is so valued, while ours is not.

And under The Land of Opportunity For Some rubric, there is this:

In Times Of Uncertainty And Adversity

 .... I always turned to trusted sources for perspective and commentary - editorial cartoonists. My favourite by far is Theo Moudakis:

A 'Proud Feminist' No More

Things are unfolding at a rapid rate, so I shall just post a few excerpts from Stephen Maher's piece published in The Star just a few minutes ago.

In a speech to a feminist political charity in Ottawa Tuesday night, Justin Trudeau lamented the election of Donald Trump as a setback for women’s progress.

“I want you to know that I am, and always will be, a proud feminist,” he said. “You will always have an ally in me and in my government.”

On Friday, the proud feminist had a meeting with Canada’s first female finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, and told her that he intended to replace her, presumably with Mark Carney, on Tuesday.

First, though, Trudeau wanted Freeland to present the government’s fall economic statement, featuring a gimmicky $2.7 billion holiday tax break the PMO had persuaded her to include. She would have to humiliate herself on her last day on the job by announcing a measure she opposed, missing the deficit target she had set herself in May. Trudeau had thus created a situation where it was easier for Freeland, his single closest and most important cabinet ally, to denounce him and quit, rather than do as he asked.

The departure of the long-suffering Freeland, the consummate team player, reminded me of the departure in 2019 of former justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould, who quit hours after the prime minister told reporters “her presence in cabinet should actually speak for itself.”

In both cases, the proud feminist put women who had shattered glass ceilings in a position where they were better off resigning rather than let Trudeau continue to humiliate them.

Taken together, the two incidents make Trudeau look like a narcissistic gaslighter, a fake feminist who thought he could subordinate talented women to his will based on his own excessive self-confidence.

With her departure, the whole operation now seems like a farcical mess.

On Monday, Trudeau huddled with his remaining cabinet. No minister who left the meeting would say out loud whether they still have confidence in him as prime minister. Five or six more ministers were rumoured to be ready to follow Freeland out the door.

The proud feminist now looks like a one-trick pony, a narcissist whose leadership was only effective while his charisma was working. Now that his charm has worn off, he is left with nothing, performing progressivism as if a breathless world was still waiting for his latest charming quip while everyone just wants him to go.

As they say, there is much more to come, so I'm sure we'll all stayed tuned with the aphoristic "bated breath". 

Breaking News!

 Chrystia Freeland has just resigned!

Time For A Refresher Course

I have never been fond of the American aphorism, "My country, right or wrong." On the surface, it suggests a reflexive, unbending and blind loyalty to and pride in one's nation, no matter its shortcomings. This can lead to all sorts of excesses, as U.S. history so amply demonstrates. However, love of and pride in a person's country of birth is, or can be, quite a different thing.

I've been thinking about national pride in light of what Charlie Angus recently had to say. He reminds us of how that pride informed our past politicians, whether in government or opposition, in their relationship with the Americans. While that relationship has mostly been cordial, it has never been servile.

Now comes word of a new poll by Angus Reid that shows a steep decline in national pride.

In 1985, 78 per cent said they were “very proud” to be Canadian. This dropped to 52 per cent in 2016 and now by another 18 points to 34 per cent. The proportion who say they are either proud or very proud of their nationality has dropped precipitously from 79 per cent to 58 per cent over the past eight years.

The Star's Kevin Jiang offers some analysis: 

These numbers could indicate Canadians feel the country isn’t living up to their expectations, Ramos said, especially in the years after the COVID-19 pandemic.

“You don’t have to look very far across the Toronto Star headlines to see that there are issues around stagnant wages, around affordability, around housing,” [political sociologist Howard] Ramos said. “This is a big part of what’s being observed in this trend.”

As well, there are key demographic differences. 

Older Canadians were significantly more likely to feel deeply attached to Canada, with 63 per cent of men and 66 per cent of women over 55 echoing that sentiment. In contrast, just 39 per cent of men and 26 per cent of women aged 18 to 34 answered the same.

Political party affiliation also plays a role.

Conservative voters were most likely to want to see the country split up or take up Donald Trump’s offer to become the 51st state; 11 per cent of Conservative supporters said they want to join the U.S. while eight per cent said they’d prefer to “see the country split up into two or more smaller countries.”

There can be little doubt that disaffection is widespread, for the above stated economic reasons, as well as things like wait times for medical service, etc. As well, I can't help but wonder about the effect of right-wing podcasters on Canadians' views, especially younger ones, of our country. 

Is there a way of reversing this trend? Obviously, politicians are in key positions to influence our national vies. The constant harping about the brokenness of Canada by opportunists like PP certainly contribute to the negative sentiments, a view echoed by Richard Nimijean, a Carleton University professor:

“National identity is not static,” Nimijean said. “If things are tough all over and if our leaders are talking about things being bad ... it’s not surprising we get these kinds of results.”

But Ramos believes these results may also indicate the country is in need of a clearer definition of what it means to be Canadian. He points to a 2015 interview with the New York Times, where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there was “no core identity, no mainstream in Canada.”

“Maybe it’s time for us to begin to think about what is that identity,” Ramos said, “and what we should be proud of.”

And that, of course, is a topic fit for any number of blog posts, but perhaps it is time for a refresher course on our country and why it is so dear.

I shall end now by wearing my heart on my sleeve, something I am usually loathe to do. There is no other country on earth I would rather be a citizen of. It was this country into which I was born and have been nurtured, and it will have my undivided (but not uncritical) loyalty until my days are done.

 

UPDATED: Our National Pride Needs This

Here is a  reminder and a jolt from Charlie Angus, one that should be heard by all who would appease the mad king, Trump, at the expense of our national pride and nationhood:

UPDATE:

Here are a few more words of wisdom from Charlie Angus:

Behind The Headlines

The shooting of Brian Thompson, the CEO of United Healthcare, has dominated headlines since the crime occurred. While none of us should take any satisfaction in the murder of a fellow human being, what I have found fascinating is the embargo on network television news of inconvenient truths about the deceased's life.

Before delving into that, I highly recommend David Graham's latest post, An Unsympathetic Death. Graham provides outstanding information about the health insurance business in America, and the daily perils Americans face even when they have healthcare insurance. It is a reminder of how fortunate we are, despite its shortcoming, to have socialized medicine in Canada.

In its refusal to 'blame the victim',  mainstream media have sanitized certain facts. 

The business run by Thompson brought in $281 billion in revenue last year, making it the largest subsidiary of the Minnetonka, Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group. His $10.2 million annual pay package, including salary, bonus and stock options awards, made him one of the company’s highest-paid executives.

If you read Graham's post, you will see that much of that profit and bonus accrued from United Health Care's 33% denial rate of medical insurance claims. One need not have a particularly vivd imagination to see the emotional and physical toll this would have on the 'insured'.

However, there is much more to Brian Thompson's story.

UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was facing a lawsuit accusing him and other executives of insider trading related to an ongoing Justice Department investigation before he was fatally shot outside a New York City hotel on Wednesday.

Thompson, 50, was one of three UnitedHealth Group executives named in a class action lawsuit filed in May that accused them of dumping millions of dollars worth of stock while the company was the subject of a federal antitrust investigation, which investors say wasn’t immediately disclosed to shareholders.

“UnitedHealth was aware of the DOJ investigation since at least October 2023. Instead of disclosing this material investigation to investors or the public, UnitedHealth insiders sold more than $120 million of their personally held UnitedHealth shares,” the suit filed by the City of Hollywood Firefighters’ Pension Fund alleges.

 Nearly $25 billion in shareholder value was erased once the investigation was publicly revealed in February. Thompson was able to sell off more than $15 million of his own UnitedHealth shares [emphasis mine] before the value dropped, however, the suit states.

In my view, mainstream media's withholding of such information is both a disservice to loyal viewers and additional fuel for the almost endless criticism directed at the legacy outlets. Even I, an unrepentant supporter of such media, have had my faith shaken.

Life in the United States is often described as "dog eat dog." It would appear that some dogs live a charmed life, until they don't.

 

 

For Love Of Country

 

It seems, at least to me, that this day and age has seen a debasement in the concept of loving and standing by one's country. We see it in the constant derogation of Canada (under Trudeau) by PP, who incessantly insists to us that everything is broken. Indeed, some might be inclined to say that his efforts are in accord with the attempts of the incoming U.S. president to paint Canada in a very negative light. Love of country and grace seem to be singularly absent in PP's makeup.

But of course, PP is a politician, doing everything he can to disaffect Canadians so that he can be our next national 'leader'. More worrisome is those ordinary citizens who seem to see our nationhood as both provisional and transactional. While those people are surely in a minority, my life experience has taught me that bad ideas, if spread and repeated enough times, sometimes become a form of reality.

Take, for example, the following letters that I culled from the National Post, a journal that I almost never read, its extreme right-wing bent an offence to the normal spirit.

‘A small price to pay for the economic benefits’

At his recent meeting with our prime minister, President-elect Donald Trump mused that Canada could become the 51st state. Let’s consider the possible benefits.

Article content

Under the American taxation system, Canadians would get to keep more of their hard-earned cash (no GST holidays needed).

We would finally have a leader who would unwaveringly support the only democracy in the Middle East (and not UNRWA) against the terrorist bullies who battle for Israel’s demise, and a leader who would stand up to the dangerous despots in Russia, China and North Korea and shackle Iran’s nuclear aspirations. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would be welcomed without fear of being arrested. (The U.S. is not a member of the International Criminal Court.)

Our armed forces would proudly serve with a technologically-advanced and well-funded military.

And our ever-falling loonie would be exchanged for the greenback, which is currently worth Cdn $1.40.

If it means not having cannabis shops on every street corner, that’s a small price to pay for the economic benefits that would accrue to the average Canadian family.

Susan Silverman, Toronto

Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state is a great idea. Given its population of almost 40 million, Canada would have a large block of votes in the electoral college and therefore a large say in picking the president. There would be no worries about tariffs on exports to the U.S., which would allow our economy to flourish. There would be no more worries about the protection of the border, and the costs associated with it. And our military would finally be well-equipped with modern armament.

Article content

It is indeed food for thought, laced with maple syrup.

Roger Cyr, Victoria, B.C.

It is indeed sad to see citizenship reduced to a transactional mentality. I pray that such sentiments will always remain in the minority. 

With Apologies To Dr. Seuss

The Heart Of This Grinch Would Not Grow, No,

 Not Even An Inch

H/t Moudakis

The Government We Deserve?

I can't say that I have ever really subscribed to the above quote by Thomas Jefferson, largely because politicians misrepresent themselves all the time.  One may vote with a certain hope for better things based on their promises, but those promises rarely materialize. Because of that, truly informed decisions are difficult to arrive at. (Of course,  the recent U.S. election proves the exception, with voters willfully embracing the chaos agent known as Don Trump.)

However, I believe there is much truth in the quote when manifestly unfit governments continue to ride high in the polls and repeatedly get re-elected. Such seems to be the situation in Ontario, where Doug Ford, despite his grave fiscal and ethical malfeasance, enjoys ongoing popularity.

This brief CBC report on the auditor general's report gives some insight into the shady and fiscally profligate practices of the government:

In addressing the auditor-general's report on the government, Edward Keenan writes of a theme that seems to permeate the Ford government's decision-making approach, one found in the AG's report:

“Without proper planning.”

That was her description, in Tuesday’s annual report, of how the decision to close supervised-consumption drug sites was made.

On supervised injection sites, the auditor notes harm reduction strategies that prevented 1,500 deaths from overdoses are being discontinued without proper planning or impact analysis. Which sounds like a roundabout way to say people are likely to die.

But six years into the life of a government that has always shown an eagerness to fire before it aims, it seems more like an all-purpose description of The Doug Ford Way.

The report contains plenty of other language that might seem jolting when applied to government actions, but by now seems overly familiar. The decisions to issue minister’s zoning orders (or MZOs)were “not fair, transparent or accountable.” The assessment process for the Ontario Place redevelopment was “irregular” and “subjective,” and “rules and guidelines … were not followed.” 

There are a few themes there that are at the forefront of Spence’s report. Decisions seem to be made quickly and on impulse, according to either the political whims and vendettas of the premier or the backroom desires of developers and corporate interests. Traditional accountability checks or analysis of impacts are discarded. Rinse, repeat.

Keenan asks the question of where all of this leaves us. My answer is, unfortunately, without any viable alternative that will cure people's addiction to the populist premier. When she was first chosen as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, I harboured some hope that Bonnie Crombie might prove to be that viable alternative.  But as I wrote in two previous posts, one in June and one in November, she really only promises more of the same fiscal recklessness in her desperation for electoral support. In in her latest ploy for popularity, she promises to axe the (carbon) tax. 

I’d rather cut your income taxes permanently than cut you a rebate cheque.”

The rebate remark was a dig at both Trudeau and Premier Doug Ford, who have promised cheques of $250 and $200 respectively to defray the high cost of living. 

Perhaps when they do go to the polls, the people of Ontario can be forgiven for voting for the same old thing, since that is all that will apparently be on offer. 

About That Annexation Thing

Even if Trump was only 'joking' about Canada becoming the 51st state, this cartoon by Moudakis seems timely:

But Were They Allowed To Sit At The Adults' Table?

I have to admit to deep ambivalence in hearing the news that Team Trudeau jetted off to Mar a Lago to have dinner with the incoming American president. My mental images included exaggerated genuflection, followed by a kissing of Don Trump's ring. Sometimes hyperbole helps clarify my thinking. Not so much this time, however.

On the one hand, my sense of national pride is deeply hurt at the thought of our prime minister and his entourage jumping to the beat of a madman. On the other hand, I wonder how much choice we really have in the matter, well aware that the consequences of the visit, both good and bad, may be long lasting.

Some are applauding the pilgrimage.

“I’m surprised and impressed,” said Flavio Volpe, head of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, that the Canadian leader was meeting with the president-elect, adding that kind of personal facetime with the former and future president is invaluable for Trudeau, and for Canada in the months ahead.

“The PM is demonstrating the humility that’s required (by) going to the source. Also the prime minister is demonstrating to the contrary of all the predictions (the idea) that Donald Trump wouldn’t want to work with him is untrue.”

Others, however, are not as sanguine. Of our country's snap-to-it reaction to Trump's threat of tarifffs, Bruce Arthur writes: 

Canada’s reaction, though, showed a country ripe for the picking, smelling of panic and surrender. There are facts, of course. The two borders are incredibly different; barely any fentanyl is caught coming from Canada to the U.S., though it’s rising slightly. The same is true of irregular crossings, on a border than spans nearly 9,000 kilometres.

Still, many Canadian politicians didn’t just accept Trump’s bark-at-the-waiter framing, but hopped to attention, ready to serve. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, predictably, put out a statement asking Trump to exclude oil from tariffs, and pledged to send extra patrols to the Alberta border, which is, uh, not a hotspot. One supposes she is already familiar with the crossing at Coutts.

A similar reaction came from Quebec premier Francois Legualt as he called for increased border security, and Ontario's Doug Ford even 

met with Canada Border Services Agency and the U.S.‘s Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to find out “what needs to happen to secure our border.” 

Of PP's response I will not speak, except to say that from his perspective, it can all be blamed on Trudeau's incompetence, a refrain that must be growing tiresome to even his most ardent supporters.

As well, there are darker implications to the visit.

[Timothy]Snyder’s first rule of tyrants is simple: do not obey in advance, and too many seem ready to forget that rule, in a vulnerable country.

But the die has been cast, leaving me to wonder what other extraordinary demands the mad Trump will make of Canada in the future. What will he do to obtain our much-coveted water? What threats will he make to open up our entire agricultural industry to American predations? How much longer will we have even a semblance of policies independent of the American colossus?

Oh, and for the record, in an act of real 'forbearance', Trump allowed Team Canada to sit with the 'adults' last evening.

.

 

A Novel Suggestion

In my more fantasy-laden moments, I imagine a response from Canada to Trump's tariff threats that would really get through to the Americans. Since appeasement never works, how about meeting their tactics with some of our own?

Canada needs to review trading relationships

A quick fix to bring Donald Trump’s bullying tactics to heel would be an equivalent export tax on all energy resources and raw materials exported to the United States. [Empahsis mine] Canada is America’s  largest energy source and  number two supplier of nonenergy mineral resources after China. Canada should not cringe in fear of Trump’s tactics of bullying and misinformation or cave in to his demands. We need to use whatever tools we have available to work out a reasonable fair-trade deal that benefits both partners. Without that, it is no longer a trade deal but exploitation and no partnership. Trump will try a workaround to existing agreements and we must be prepared to act in kind.

We also need to review our trading relationships. Expanding our trading relationships with other partners would make us far less susceptible to Trump’s tactics. We must also expand our military capacity. National service and our own military supply chain and sources could create thousands of new jobs across Canada in manufacturing. If we love our country, is it not worth defending it economically and militarily?

Robert Holden, Keswick, ON

Apply Trump’s logic to our illegal gun problem

Countries have been fighting drugs for a very long time. The Opium War was in the 1840s. No one has figured out how to solve the drug problem, including Donald Trump in his first term in office. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should tell Donald Trump he is putting a 25 per cent tariff on U.S. products until he stops the thousands of guns entering Canada through the United States bringing higher levels of violent crime. Last time I checked, countries are responsible for securing their own borders. This is not something you outsource to another country.

Michael Yaffe, Toronto  

Of course, the above scenarios will never come to pass, but I can dream, can't I?

A Question Of Confidence And Competence

Today, I'll let Theo Moudakis speak for many of us:

And here is PP's political response to the threat of massive tariffs from the incoming American president:

Poilievre's response somehow leaves me with a paucity of confidence in his competence.

UPDATED: Vying For The Biggest Santa Hat

Tis the season to be jolly. The question is, who gets to wear the biggest Santa hat, Doug Ford or Justin Trudeau? Since I have already dealt with Doug Ford's attempt at securing the prized possession in a previous post, today I'll look at Justin Trudeau's efforts to reverse-engineer The Grinch and emerge victorious.

Tonda MacCharles writes about the Trudeau Liberals'

....GST two-month “holiday” on so-called essential goods plus a $250 cheque for anyone who earned under $150,000 last year...

 It borrows heavily from the Liberals’ rivals. The Conservatives campaigned on a December sales tax break like this in 2021. (The Liberals opposed it then.) The NDP pitched a similar cut last week. 

One thing is for sure, the 2024 Liberal version carries a hefty price tag of $6.28 billion — according to early calculations — at a time when Canada’s annual deficit, which Justin Trudeau’s government promised would clock in at around $40 billion, is certain to spike.

But after all, this is the season to give, isn't it? However, the Liberal largesse also comes with a big bill:

....the kiddies who get cheaper diapers or Christmas toys for the next two months will be the ones paying the tab plus interest, for years to come.

David Macdonalt, of the Canadian Centre for Policy alternatives, suggests the money could have been put to better use through 'targetted giving':

 Instead of sending $250 to “basically everybody,” Macdonald said the government could have sent $500 or $1,000 to the lowest-earning 30 per cent of workers, or the lower half of workers, and concentrated the help to those most in need of a boost right now.

“Presumably it’s the visibility is what’s important here, more so than necessarily substantially helping folks that are maybe turning to food banks because they can’t afford food.”

Will the Trudeau payout reap the obvious political dividends he is hoping for? Letters to the editor suggest otherwise:

Now the PM is attempting to buy votes

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is taking a page from Premier Doug Ford’s election playbook and attempting to buy votes. A GST tax holiday that will cost $1.6 billion and a working Canadian rebate, for those earning less than $150,000 that is estimated to cost $4.68 billion. Would it not be better to use this money to assist those who cannot afford to eat in restaurants or buy prepared foods and must rely on food banks, and those who are unemployed or retired and financially struggling who are not eligible for the rebate because they are not working Canadians?

Greg Sheehan, Mississauga

 

Debt of Christmas splurge will live on long after its recipients are gone

 The federal Liberal government was projected to incur a whopping $39.8 billion national financial deficit in 2024/25. This was before handing out a Christmas splurge of a $1.6 billion in GST alleviation, plus a $4.68 billion cash handout to most Canadians. To put this in the context of an individual, it is tantamount to someone with enormous credit card debt celebrating the taking out of a cash advance to increase their debt to enable them to go out on a holiday spending spree and whoop it up. There is one significant difference, however. The principle and interest on the credit card debt must be paid off in the near future by the errant borrower. With a national debt already at $1,453 billion our grandchildren will be paying for this largesse many years after we recipients are long gone.

Anthony Moscrop, Willowdale 

Santa is coming, kiddies. As a bonus, all of you get to ultimately decide who deserves to lay claim to his much-coveted head covering.

UPDATE: Seems apt.

H/t Moudakis

Political Leadership Void

In talking to my friend Gary today, I offered the opinion that even though he is the putative next prime minister, PP will not have what it takes to deal with the demented agenda that will in all likelihood be the 'crowning achievement'  of the ape the U.S. chose as their president. Perhaps PP would be well-advised to consider this advice from  Gord Wilson of Port Rowan:

Will Canada’s leadership find the courage to stand up to Trump?

Donald Trump cares little about maintaining good relationships with any country or international organization that opposes his agenda. To be sure, he and his choice of ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra will demand that Canada bow to his trade demands. Our political leadership should remember that their role is to put Canada first, and in response to such demands, advise Trump, for example, that unless he withdraws his trade demands, we will close the Welland Canal to U.S. traffic, cease the export of Quebec Hydro, cease the shipment of oil and gas, cease the shipping of vital Canadian mined minerals, and enforce our 200 mile limit on the East and West Coasts. Canadian water is another commodity that gives Canadian leadership “push back.” The coming months will tell all Canadians if our political leadership can find enough courage to stand up to an elected bully.

Racing To The Bottom

Mr. Trudeau apparently thinks that because if seems to work for Doug Ford, it might work for him -vote-buying, that is.

You can read the full details here.

Meanwhile, Theo Moudakis encapsulates this silly season nicely:

UPDATED: See No Evil

I have lived long enough to think I have seen the worst things that humanity has to offer. I shan't enumerate examples here, since they are legion. But not all evil deeds are acts of commission. Many deep moral stains originate in omissions, failures to act. The West's complicity in the Israeli-led Gaza genocide falls under both rubrics, of course.

In its passion to avoid any accusation of anti-semitism (anti-semitism and criticism of Israel having been susscessfully conflated), the West is clearly complicit in the genocide. Indeed, even a modest support for Palestinians provokes rebuke and condemnation. In Ontario, for example, Hamilton Centre MPP Sarah Jama was censured for wearing the keffiyeh, rendering her persona non grata in the legislature and resulting in her ouster from the provincial NDP.

But such reprovals are not limited to the provinces. Indeed, Heather McPherson, an Alberta NDP MP, is now being singled out for rebuke.

A New Democrat MP was warned Monday that her decision to don a watermelon pin — a symbol of the Palestinian cause — could be construed as a political “prop” that has no place in the House of Commons. 

During question period, Edmonton-Strathcona MP Heather McPherson took to the floor of the lower chamber to castigate Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government for its response to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“Entire families have been decimated. Children are starving to death. When will the Liberals live up to their obligations?” McPherson said, calling for sanctions on the Israeli government and the implementation of an “actual arms embargo.”

That attempt to stir the conscience of the government was met with a stern warning from House Speaker Greg Fergus., suggesting her pin was a prop, supposedly forbidden in the House.

In a heated exchange over what is and is not permitted to be worn in the Commons, McPherson rose on a point of order to question Fergus’s suggestion.

“I have to tell you that I stand here proudly wearing the pin that stands in solidarity to Palestinian people, but people within this place are wearing pins for a various number of reasons,” McPherson said.

She referred to a moose hide pin that a number of MPs wear in the Commons, which was born from an Indigenous-led movement to end violence toward women and children. 

Then, for some sensitive' souls in the House, she went too far:

The NDP MP’s reference to poppies also being worn in the chamber for Remembrance Day, however, was met with outrage from the opposition benches, with Conservative MPs expressing disbelief on social media over the comparison. 

She also reminded members that she, along with others, wear a number of other pins, including a Ukrainian one, to mark a thousand days since Putin invaded Ukraine.

Funny thing about freedom of expression, isn't it? It is apparently only permitted when the state declares who is an acceptable target for denunciation. In the corrupted currents of this world, it would seem that Israel gets a free pass, no matter what crimes against humanity it perpetrates.

UPDATE: Predictably, the U.S. vetoed a UN resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza:

The United States on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in the war in Gaza because it is not linked to an immediate release of hostages taken captive by Hamas in Israel in October 2023.

The U.N. Security Council voted 14-1 in favor of the resolution sponsored by the 10 elected members on the 15-member council, but it was not adopted because of the U.S. veto.

The resolution that was put to a vote “demands an immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire to be respected by all parties, and further reiterates its demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.”

Hmm. Sounds to me that the resolution did call for the immediate release of the hostages, but I guess Israel's perennial, unconditional friend just can't bring itself to do anything other than perpetuate the carnage in Gaza.

Alan Lichtman's Predictive Failure

While I have resolved to give as little space in my head as possible to the guy who won the American presidential race. I remain fascinated by the dynamics that returned him to power. A recent Guardian piece on Alan Lichtman perhaps sheds some light.

Lichtman is storied for his prognostications of American presidential elections.

Allan Lichtman had correctly forecast the result of nine of the past 10 US presidential elections (and even the one he didn’t, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore). His predictive model of “13 keys” to the White House was emulated around the world and seemed all but indestructible.

This time, he forecast a defeat of Don Trump.  So what went wrong? Why did the 13 keys to the White House this university professor developed with a Russian expert on earthquakes fail this time? One of the key reasons, he says, is irrationality.

“The keys are premised on the proposition that a rational, pragmatic electorate [my emphasis] decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get another four years,” he explains. “Just as this kind of hate and violence is new, there are precedent-shattering elements now to our political system, most notably disinformation.

And there is do doubt that disinformation played a major role in the election, especially that which was disseminated by Elon Musk.

“There’s always been disinformation but it has exploded to a degree we’ve never seen before. It’s not just Fox News and the rightwing media. It’s also rightwing podcasters and we have a brand new player, the $300bn guy, Elon Musk, whose wealth exceeds that of most countries in the world and has heavily put his thumb on disinformation.

“It’s been reported that the disinformation that [Musk] disseminates has been viewed billion of times. 

That includes disinformation about inflation, jobs, employment, the stock market, growth, hurricane aid, the Ukraine war and undocumented immigrants, falsely portrayed as dangerous killers when in fact they commit crimes at far lower rate than native-born Americans.

“We’re seeing something new in our politics, which affected the prediction and could affect future predictions but has a much bigger message for the future of our democracy. George Orwell was 40 years too soon. He made it clear that dictatorships don’t just arise from brutality and suppression. They arise from control of information: doublethink. Famine is plenty, war is peace. We’re in the doublethink era and maybe we can get out of it, maybe not.”

Another factor, he says, is the fecklessness of Merrick Garland, the Attorney General and head of the Department of Justice, who he describes as spineless, keeping with a Democratic propensity:

 He diddled for almost two years before appointing a special counsel [to investigate Trump’s role in the January 6 2021 insurrection].

“We all knew on January 7 what Trump had done. Certainly we knew it by the time Merrick Garland was appointed in early 2021. If he had acted as he should have right away, everything would have been different. I believe Trump would have been convicted of serious federal crimes and either be in jail or be on probation and the whole political system would have been different.”

Lichtman adds: “He epitomises the spineless Democrats. ‘Oh, I don’t want to do this because I might seem political and Republicans might criticise me.’

Some would say predicting people's behaviour is a mug's game. With the massive loss of rationality we bear witness to today, I would tend to agree with that assessment.